Strategy Under Uncertainty

A recent McKinsey Quarterly article addresses the question of how to design strategy in various types of unceratin business and economic environments. While the advise is aimed to companies, the principles also apply to economic development strategy for geographic areas.

The article identifies four types of uncertain environments:

1. Clear enough future: where the future situation is fairly apparent.
2. Alernative futures: where 2-3 possible future scenarios might apply.
3. Range of futures: where several possible futures are seen as possible.
4. Ambiguous future: where scenarios cannot be clearly identified.

It is useful in preparing economic development strategies to characterize future scenarios where they may apply. I am finding in my strategy work that this is even more important when the timeframe of the strategy is beyond 12 months.

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