Article 2: Where is Economic Development Headed?

On Saturday (June 21), I started a series on the future of economic development. This article picks up where the first one left off.

My last thought was to focus a future-cast of the ED field on those common elements of economic development found in U.S. communities, regions and states.

To make the results coherent, I would suggest organizing the future-cast on a state-by-state basis. This approach ensures there is adequate recognition given of state and local tax policies, various regulations that businesses must abide by, governmental structure and other state-based factors.

With a manageable goal in mind, which common elements should be included? These strike me as worthy of inclusion:

1. ED System Structure: How are ED policies, programs and activities currently organized into an overall "system?" How is that system, or aspects of it, likely to change in the next decade and what factors will drive these changes? Three levels should be assessed:
* Community (cities and counties).
* Regional (multi-county urban and rural areas and/or metro areas).
* State.

2.ED System Performance: What are the major priorities giving direction to economic development activities in each state, and how well are organizations and programs performing in reaching these priorities? What are the driving factors influencing performance today? What are the most probable future priorities for each state and what factors will drive performance? Priorities falling into three time periods should be assessed:
* Short-term priorities (next 1-2 years).
* Intermediate term (3-5 years out).
* Long term (beyond 5 years).

3. ED System Impact: What is the cumulative impact of the ED system on society in each state? Is this impact judged to be largely favorable or unfavorable? What factors explain this impact? What intended impact should the ED system strive to have in the future? What factors will be most instrumental to having this overall impact in the future? I suggest a focus on these key impact dimensions:
* Impact on geographic patterns of growth and development. A cost of growth dimension should be included.)
* Impact on wealth creation and prosperity.
* Impact on natural environment and quality of life.
* Impact on business and industry competitiveness.
* Impact on tax base and public/community asset value.
* Impact on increasing national and global connectivity.

Of course, in each state alternative future scenarios of the ED field would be created.

Note: these are the impacts that come to mind for now. I may add others after further thought.

As you can imagine, there are many considerations to be given to a future-cast of this magnitude. There are many interesting issues that could be included in an assessment like this, but the project must be manageable.

Why undertake this future-cast? Here are the three major reasons that I see at this point:

1. As a profession, we are not thinking collectively and cumulatively about what we're doing, what impact our efforts have and where we are headed in the future. By thinking about the present and the future, we can help each other by providing an overall context for future decisions and activities.

2. This effort could help set more clear expectations about what we should be giving attention to in the ED field. This will be valuable to various stakeholders, including citizens trying to plan their future work lives, ED leadership, and funding sources.

3. Hopefully, the future-cast will identify how EDO's across the United States can work more collaboratively in the future to achieve common or linked goals. This collaboration should extend to the global economy as well.

How might this future-cast be approached? Here are a couple starting thoughts:

1. Each state should undertake its own future-cast, using a common framework that allows for interstate and interregional comparisons.

2. Web survey technology could help facilitate this process. (Ed Morrison, are you listening?)

3. The future-cast should lead to state-level and national action agendas to build the ED field and make it stronger and more effective over the next decade.

And, this is my break point for today. I will be back to you with further thoughts. Please share your thoughts about this with me. I welcome them! Don's email and phone number: 440.449.0753.