Article 1: Where is Economic Development Headed?

If you had to make a prediction today about the future of economic development over the next decade, what would your prediction say? Have you given any thought to this question?

Maybe like a lot of people, you are focused on surviving today and will deal with tomorrow when it comes. I am an advocate of devoting some attention to the future. Also, I believe that if done properly, this process can help us manage today's issues and challenges more effectively.

I have been thinking about this question in bits and pieces for sometime and plan to share some of my ideas on this topic in a series of articles. After all, the name of this blog is what? Economic Development Futures!

This article concerns itself with some of the basic definitions required to approach a future-casting process for economic development and how we might develop some appropriate scenarios for the field. This is only the first installment in my thought process. This is no simple task, as you can imagine. Unfortunately, I will have to drag you through some of this complexity to build a useful and legitimate "basis" for making some predictions about economic development's future.

First, how do we even start to think about this question? For one, we need to define the "questions" that should be asked. Is it a question that can be answered in a meaningful way? I think the answer is yes, but we need to approach this "future-cast" with alternative scenarios in mind. Also, we need to define what we mean by "economic development."

What is the basic question we should ask? The basic question I think we should be asking is this: "How will the economic development field in the United States change over the next decade in terms of its structure, performance and impact on society?

Beneath this basic question, I am suggesting two important questions forcing us to consider different possibilities:

1. If the field were to follow a "favorable outcome" trajectory, what likely developments would occur?

2. If the field were to follow an "unfavorable outcome" trajectory, what likely developments would occur?

Next, let's look at a working definition of the economic development field. Here is the one I suggest working with.

Economic development is the system of organizations, policies, programs and practices that communities, regions, and states employ to maintain and increase the vitality of local economies, enhance the competitiveness of businesses and industries and increase the prosperity of local populations.

I have chosen to exclude national and international economic development concerns in my definition to sharpen our focus on local and state activities. It is recognized, however, that these local and state economic development activities occur within important national and international economic contexts. In fact, these contexts have grown in importance in shaping the field today, and they are likely to grow in importance in the future as the "worldwide economic web" becomes more tightly linked.

Scenario formulation requires us to do a couple of things:

1. Define the major factors and trends that currently influence the field and will shape its future.

2. Configure scenarios to fit the available data and expectations/assumptions used in the future-casting process

As my organizing questions above suggest, I think we should look at two basic overall trajectories for the economic development field:

1. Favorable outcome trajectory, which identifies what will occur in the field if things are deemed to go well or favorably. Of course that begs the question: what does "well or favorable" mean? For some, keeping things basically the same as they are now would be considered a favorable outcome. For others, a favorable outcome is for the field to advance to the next level or two of sophistication, value, significance, etc. A follow-on question is how favorably can the field develop? It is here that we begin to differentiate the outlines of scenarios.

2. Unfavorable outcome trajectory, which identifies what will occur in the field if things are deemed to not go so well in the future. Again, the valuing question needs to be answered, and we need to define the outlines for the possible scenarios along this trajectory.

Two possible bases can be used in constructing our scenarios:

1. Scenarios judged against current conditions.

2. Scenarios judged against some envisioned "ideal" set of conditions.

Given the pragmatic character of the economic development field, I am suggesting that we follow the first approach, or judge the scenarios against current conditions. We can also consider how our scenarios look when judged against some ideal set of conditions at a later point, if that is considered useful and productive.

Four generic scenarios can be identified under both the favorable and unfavorable trajectories:

1. Baseline, or continuation of current conditions.

2. Slight departure from current conditions.

3. Moderate departure from current conditions.

4. Radical or extreme departure from current conditions.

To start this process, we will need to define "existing conditions." We will need a framework to accomplish that. One starting assumption I am making in this regard is that "existing conditions" vary across states, regions and communities. While some parts of the economic development system in different places contains the same or similar elements, it is subject to similar influences and the like. I think we should assume there is meaningful variation in the structure, performance, orientation and goals, and other dimensions of the economic development field as it currently exists in different geographic places-both within the U.S. and internationally.

Manageability is important. This future-cast will concern itself with the ED field in the United States, and it will concern itself only with the common elements found in many or most U.S. places.

This is where I will break for now. To be continued. Please email or call me if you are interested in adding your thoughts at this stage. Don Iannone's Email and telephone number: 440.449.0753.