Economic Development Futures Journal

Sunday, November 26, 2006

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Housing Starts Slow

New housing starts sank to the lowest level in more than six years in October and a key measure of builders' confidence in the market hit a nine-year low, a government report showed.

Both housing starts and applications for new building permits tumbled well below Wall Street forecasts - a sign that the slumping housing market has not yet hit bottom.

"Today's figures clearly reveal that a quick turnaround in this sector is not just around the corner," said Anthony Chan, chief economist for JPMorgan Chase Private Client Services. "Any real turnaround may not be forthcoming until the central bank reverses course and begins to lower short-term rates again."

Housing starts plunged nearly 15 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.49 million in October from a revised 1.74 million in September, according to the Census Bureau report. That was the lowest reading since July 2000.

The pace of single family housing starts in October was down nearly 32 percent from the year-ago period when the home building boom was still roaring forward.

Building permits, seen as a measure of builder confidence in the real estate market, fell to the their lowest pace since December 1997, coming in at 1.54 million, down from 1.64 million in September. Permits for single family homes are also off 32 percent from the year-ago levels.

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com forecast that starts would fall to an annual rate of 1.68 million and permits to 1.625 million.

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