U.S Leading Index Down Slightly in April

The US Conference Board announced recently that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent and the lagging index increased 0.3 percent in April.

The leading index decreased slightly in April. As a result of data revisions, the small decrease in March was revised up to a small increase. From October to April, the leading index grew 1.5 percent. This is slightly below the average six-month change (1.7 percent) in the first three months of the year. Housing permits made the largest negative contribution to the leading index in March. However, the strengths among the leading indicators have been widespread in recent months.

The coincident index continued to increase steadily as it has since September 2005. From October to April, the coincident index grew 1.7 percent and all four components contributed about equally to this growth.

After slowing down in 2005, the leading index picked up somewhat in the first four months of 2006, but it is only slightly above its level at the end of 2005. Moreover, the small gains since December have not been very persistent. The current behavior of the leading index suggests economic growth should continue moderately in the near term.

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