Business Futures

Predicting the future of business is never easy, but it doesn't have to be a blind gamble. Savvy managers constantly engage in clear-eyed futurism to anticipate changes that may lurk over the horizon. The process starts by examining known trends, testing scenarios, and constructing a narrative about where business is headed.

Consider what's happening with smart tags, such as radio frequency identification (RFID). These wireless microchips are already used by large companies to track products in real time. Wal-Mart is requiring its top 100 vendors to employ the technology by next January. Target is using RFID today to track containers moving from port to port. Microchip tags will give companies the ability to monitor the location and condition of individual products anytime, anywhere in the world.

Specialization and outsourcing are also here to stay. Nimble, highly focused companies are taking advantage of short production cycles and global markets to create new products and new business models. Dell is the best-known example: Its dynamic connection to roughly 60 core suppliers allows the PC maker to cycle inventory through assembly facilities in just six hours.

Project these realities a few decades into the future -- say, to the year 2020. RFID chips will become ubiquitous, providing unprecedented information about manufacturing processes and consumer behavior. Meanwhile, as specialization becomes the order of the day, vertically integrated companies may be supplanted by networked constellations of business partners. What does the world of business look like then?

How does all this impact economic development in the future?

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