Economic Development Futures Journal

Wednesday, August 06, 2003

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Your Global Competition and What to Do About It

Your competition for technology and non-tech businesses and jobs is g-l-o-b-a-l. Write that down and never forget it.

ED Futures has been pointing in this direction since we started. For a recent assessment of this global competitive reality, read this article in Business Facilities Online.

In my estimation, the competitive environment for new business investment is only going to intensify. Here is the scenario that I see unfolding over the next two years. There will growth opportunities for U.S. communities, regions and states, but maybe not the type you have been thinking about.

The U.S. economy continues to improve. The world economy gathers momentum. Hopefully for everyone's sake, everything everywhere stabilizes.

Merger and acquisition activity grows in the U.S. as more foreign firms buy their way into the U.S. market. Consolidation of capacity in these U.S. facilities escalates, creating more facility closings and job losses. More U.S firms locate production, office and research operations abroad to take advantage of cost and market advantages.

More joint ventures develop between U.S. and international companies in foreign markets like China and India. The demand for business incentives will grow across the board as all firms seek to cover their investment risks.

A shakeout is likely to occur in both the tech and non-tech sectors within the next 18-24 months, if this scenario occurs. Automotive will be very susceptible to this shake-out, as will be financial services and insurance and professional services (law, accounting, consulting, IT services, others).

What do we do?

First, get smart about the big picture that is taking shape real quick. Keep reading ED Futures and other sources that give you the straight skinny on what lies ahead.

Second, take your blinders off and stop pretending that you can return to your pre-2000 growth engine "business model." It won't work because new factors will be driving the next global growth wave.

Third, put more energy into educating and helping your small and medium-sized businesses in strategic industry sectors to understand and cope with what is coming.

Fourth, anticipate that there will be fewer industry leaders in all the "big" sectors, like automotive, chemicals, metals, finance, etc.

Fifth, be prudent in what plans you lay to bring new public real estate capacity online. Competition for tourism and convention is going to grow much more intense. Create only the capacity you need in this regard.

Finally, forge partnerships with EDOs in other regions, states and countries that align with your future opportunities. Plan on developing them jointly and not separately. Build intelligence and assistance networks that parallel what your major companies and industries are doing.

It's a new ballgame and you will need to shift strategies to survive and thrive.

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