Canadians Look to Their Job Future

Scotiabank has just released an interesting report on Canada's future job outlook. The observations are also useful in understanding the drivers for job creation in the U.S. and elsewhere around the world. It's a worthwhile read. The report says that as the Canadian workplace continues to change shape, demand for highly skilled workers and trades will remain strong despite a moderate slowdown in Canadian employment growth over the next five years.

In a special report entitled Canada's Evolving Jobs Market, Adrienne Warren, Senior Economist at Scotia Economics determines that, "Market forces - growth and profitability - ultimately will determine the direction and momentum of Canadian employment trends," added Warren. "Regardless, the shift to higher skilled positions demanding higher levels of education is bound to continue, a reflection of the growing international drive to improve competitiveness."

Significant job growth is expected to continue, in spite of a slower rate of growth in the Canadian economy over the next five years. "Canada has enjoyed a stellar job creation record in recent years, ranking as one of the best in the industrialized world. Between 1998 and 2002, domestic employment growth averaged 2.4 per cent annually, translating into more than 300,000 net new jobs per year," says Warren. "The expected rate of GDP growth over the next five years would be consistent with yearly job growth in the range of 1.5 per cent, or 200,000-250,000 net new jobs per year."

The report looks at the leading sectors of employment growth over the past five years - which have included business-oriented services, construction, arts and entertainment and information and culture - and identifies five driving forces that can shed some light on what industries offer the potential for better employment prospects in the 2003-07 period.

Economic factors: Structural adjustments related to growing import competition from low cost offshore producers, a stronger Canadian dollar and the continuing adoption of new technologies, may limit job prospects in some traditional areas such as manufacturing. However, many of these cost control efforts have positive employment implications for the growing business services industry.

Demographic factors: Slowing labor force growth will provide opportunities for new labour market entrants, but will also result in skill shortages in some areas, particularly those with older workforces or higher educational requirements. Occupations at risk of shortages include health care workers, university and college instructors, and skilled construction trades.

Fiscal factors: Recent large-scale funding commitments at both the federal and provincial levels point to somewhat better hiring prospects in health care and education, while stepped-up infrastructure outlays will support non-residential construction and related business services.

Regulatory factors: The implementation of the Kyoto Protocol will increase the need for workers with skills in environment-related fields, including technicians and analysts, while a resolution of current difficulties in the forestry, fishery and agricultural sector is crucial to industry prospects.

Technological factors: Demand for skilled workers who can adapt quickly to new technologies will remain strong, as will development and application related services such as software development and multi-media.

Also included in the report is a discussion of the major changes taking place in the Canadian workplace. "Today's work environment is being shaped by a number of evolving trends, including an aging of the workforce, rising educational requirements, the growing role of immigrants and women as a source of labour force growth, and the rapid rise in suburban employment gains vis-à-vis city centres," says Warren.

Download the report here.