Economic Development Futures Journal

Friday, June 06, 2003

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Where's the Tech Jobs?

According to a recent Economy.com report, even though demand for information technology (IT) equipment is improving, tech manufacturers are still cutting jobs.

In fact, even if demand for tech equipment accelerates as expected through this year, tech manufacturing employment will not likely pick up until next year at the earliest. Hardware sales are well off their peak, production continues to move overseas, and tech manufacturers are making substantial productivity advancements.

Indeed, there are very few examples of metro areas with a significant tech industry exposure that are currently posting meaningful employment growth. Most tech center’s weak spots remain the technology industry itself, with few of these areas yet to experience any stabilization in tech employment.

In terms of job numbers, the San Francisco Bay Area has lost by far the most tech manufacturing jobs at 64,000 through March. Other metro areas that have a high exposure to tech manufacturing, and that have suffered substantial job losses over the last two and a half years include: Dallas, Boston, Orange County, Phoenix, Portland OR, Austin, Raleigh and Boise. Of those, only Austin and Raleigh have experienced any semblance of stabilization in tech manufacturing employment, but both suffered very steep declines in tech employment of more than one-third since the beginning of 2001, likely due to their exposure to the telecom equipment industry.

In other words, don't set high expectations about IT-related job growth in your area for the rest of this year. The production news is good to hear, but my main worry is how much of the IT industry will be off-shore 12-18 months from now. Cost factors are driving many companies to seek refuge in China, India, Singapore and other developing countries.

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