U.S. Metro Employment Outlook

Global Insights just produced the 2003 update of the Role of Metro Areas in the U.S. Economy report for the U.S. Conference of Mayors. The news is far from good, indicating that as a whole, U.S. metro areas will need at least another year to build their job bases back to 2000 levels.

From 1998 to 2001, the nation’s five largest metro areas (New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston, and Washington, DC) added more than 786,000 jobs. The stretch from 2001 to 2004 will not on average yield any real job growth.

In 2001, 141 of the 318 metro areas lost jobs. In 2002, two-thirds (213) of U.S. metropolitan areas lost employment. The hardest hit in 2002 were New York (-117,700), San Jose (-94,200), Chicago (-79,100), Boston (-72,300), San Francisco (-65,200), Detroit (-59,600), and Dallas (-55,100). Five more lost more than 30,000 jobs (Seattle, Los Angeles, Denver, Cleveland and Minneapolis).

How are the top metros expected to perform through 2003? Overall, the 20 largest are expected to see average employment growth in the 0.1% range. Phoenix is expected to be the leader with a 1.6% growth rate, followed by San Diego at 1.0%, Chicago and Denver at 0.8%, Washington DC and Oakland at 0.7%, and Atlanta and Orange County, CA at 0.6%.

How did Ohio largest metros fare in 2002? Cleveland lost 55,000 jobs, Dayton dropped 16,800 jobs, Columbus lost 5,200 jobs, Toledo lost 12,300, Cincinnati lost 13,300 jobs, Youngstown lost 13,800, Akron dropped 5,200 jobs, and Canton lost 4,500 jobs.

Download the full report here.