Latest U.S. Economic Outlook

What’s happening with the economy? No doubt that is a question heavy on the minds of Bush Administration as they shift their attention to the economy.

According to Economy.com’s latest macroeconomic update, “the U.S. military has been resoundingly successful in meeting its objectives in the war with Iraq, but one of the casualties of that conflict has been the U.S. economy. This is most evident in the nation’s job market. Businesses have resumed reducing payrolls, which, since peaking two years ago, have fallen by well over 2 million, equal to 1.6% of all jobs.”

The current job losses are now comparable to those experienced a decade ago during that recession and jobless recovery. The current job losses are substantially more broad based across industries and regional economies than they were a decade ago. Industries shedding jobs include all of manufacturing, commercial construction, wholesaling, retailing, investment banking, and most recently, state government. Metropolitan areas experiencing measurable job losses include such wide-ranging places as Boston, New York City, Atlanta, Detroit, Kansas City, Dallas, Denver, Salt Lake City, Seattle and San Jose.

The teetering global economy will also remain a burden. Germany and Japan, the second and third largest global economies, are already in recession, and economies as wide ranging as France, Italy, and Mexico are not far behind. Even up until now strong economies, such as India, Korea, and the United Kingdom, are experiencing a marked slowing in growth.

Economy.com expects economic growth (GDP) is the 2.0% range in the second quarter of this year and then improvement to 3.4-3.5% in the third and fourth quarters of this year.

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