War

It is difficult to write about economic development issues when our nation has just launched a war with Iraq. Let's talk a bit about war.

Have you ever really thought about the word war? Fortunately, we have not had to think much about the issue in recent years. What does war mean? Merriam-Webster says war is "a state of usually open and declared armed hostile conflict between states or nations." Isn't it amazing that we turn to something so simple as a dictionary at an overwhelmingly complex and frightening time as this?

The dictionary is a powerful book when you think about it. People see the dictionary as an authoritative source for definition and meaning. Merriam-Webster can provide us with a quite adequate definition of war, but it cannot tell us what war means to us. I think that is an important distinction. Meaning is always personal. In that light, this war with Iraq means many different things to many different people. Lately, I have felt the need to develop a more personal meaning of war in general and this specific war with Iraq.

Last night, President Bush notified all of us that we are "engaged in declared armed and hostile conflict with Iraq." The war has officially begun. Most people hate ambiguity because it makes us feel overwhelmed by the possibilities. It creates questions that we cannot possibly answer, which makes us fear our own questions.

Things seem to change in our mind once we are armed with an official declaration of war. For some, it brings relief to shrug off the ambiguity and uncertainty about whether or when we will actually begin fighting the war with Iraq. For others, the real fear and anguish begin. Imagine the fear that our armed service men and women must feel right now. Imagine the fear that ordinary Iraqi citizens must feel at this moment.

What does this war mean to me? I am neither a hawk nor a dove when it comes to war. In the most basic sense, I see war as a last choice alternative when all other strategies fail. As I look back across history, war has been in many cases a necessary evil. My pragmatic side tells me that now we are officially in this war, the central concern is how to we get out with minimal harm and expense to American and world citizens.

I must admit that I am struggling with the goals we seek to achieve in launching this war with Iraq. What are we really trying to accomplish? In my analysis, this is not a simple issue. It is complex because I see many goals being represented by this war. What are they?

9/11 is hard for most Americans to shake from their memory. We do not want anything like 9/11 to occur again in the United States or anywhere in the world. For some, this war is about significantly reducing the threat of terrorism. Can this ever be a 100% solution? No, but perhaps it can reduce the future prospect of terrorism by 50 to 60%. Is that enough of a solution to justify a full-scale war with Iraq? That is the cost-benefit question that must be asked at some point.

And yes, terrorist threats may actually grow in retaliation to the Iraqi war effort. What are the probabilities of this development? When you heard about the highjacked Cuban plane this morning, what was your first thought? I would guess most people feared this was an attempt at terrorism. When you first learned of the new deadly Asian virus, wasn't the first thought that crossed your mind that biological warfare has begun?

Putting an end to Saddam Hussein and freeing the Iraqi people is another often stated goal of this war. Can we do this? Did we get the job done with Bin Laden? Somebody must have the answer to this question: What is the probability that we can actually eliminate Saddam Hussein? My guess is that this will be difficult for a variety of reasons. What about freeing the Iraqi people? This sounds like a pausible goal, but again the cost-benefit issue must be answered: How many American and allied soldiers and innocent Iraqi citizens must die to achieve this goal?

Is economic recovery a goal of this war? More than a few have called this an "oil war." If oil prices drop to less than twenty-four bucks a barrel, OPEC leaders have decided they must hold an emergency meeting. As of this morning, expectations on Wall Street are that a modest gain will occur in the market in light of the recent war developments. The struggling airlines are growing even more worried as people cancel both personal and business flights until we know more about the war and ensuing events. And finally, how about all those happy defense contractors? How do they feel about the economic significance of this war?

If this war is like any other war in history, we can count on the fact that the goals will evolve as the war process develops. We live in a world of unintended consequences. Surprise and unpredictability are regular parts of our lives. By the way, you might find Jack Ricchiuto's thoughts on this issue to be of interest. Go here. I want to thank Jack for raising some thought-provoking questions on his blog about the importance of the questions we ask in life. Thanks Jack.

How do we know if we have actually won this war? In large part, our goals tell this story. Did we accomplish all or most of what we set out to accomplish by this war? Moreover, at what human and economic price did we achieve these goals? The eyes of the world are fixed on America and this war effort. How will they judge the outcomes of this war? By which yardsticks will they assess America's wisdom in launching this war? Most have spoken by their inaction that this is not their war. How will the rest of the world feel about us if we win or lose this war? How will we as Americans feel about the rest of the world after this war is behind us.

These seem like important questions in my quest to find a personal meaning for this war with Iraq.