Investor Optimism: Drilling Down
to the States

Nationally, investor optimism is low and for the time being is not getting any better, but according to recent Gallup poll results, there may be some variation at the state level. Gallup just released its first batch of state breakdowns of its investor optimism poll.

According to the report, "Although investor optimism varied widely among these states in 2002, it is clear that investors in each of the four states were significantly less optimistic at the end of the fourth quarter than they were a year ago." The first four states examined were: CA; IL; MI; and OH.

To read more, go here.

To me, the results point to a lack of optimism everywhere. While there is variation in the economic performance of the states over the past three years, all states have been seriously impacted by the recession, terrorism and the looming war threat. Investor confidence has slipped just about everywhere.

It might be interesting to see what the Gallup results look like if arrayed by age, race, income level, and other demographic variables. Maybe Gallup and other pollsters need to ask some new questions. I think the opinion pollsters continue to ask the same questions just so they can conduct longitudinal analysis of their poll results. It might be interesting if Gallup asked some "what if" questions that gauged how the public, including investors, would react to a series of future national security and economic scenarios. Now, that would be interesting. What if the Bush Administration called a global summit on nuclear and biological disarmament, and the majority of world nations showed up? How would that impact public confidence?