Economic Development Futures Journal

Monday, January 27, 2003

counter statistics

Is Fat the Next Tobacco?

Given the growing concern about obesity in America, is fat likely to become the next tobacco? That is the question raised in a recent Fortune Magazine article. The article cites recent lawsuits by over-weight people against McDonald's and other fast-food companies.

Just as state coffers are thinning, including their Tobacco Settlement funds, maybe a new Fat Settlement Fund could fatten up those coffers again.

Expect stepped up efforts to find the perfect "anti-fat" pill. Will Weight Watchers and other diet companies see a surge in growth in coming years? Will the demand for fitness and exercise services continue to grow? How will the mix of restaurants change in your community over the next 5 years? Will communities create "fat zones" to contain the number of high-fat businesses in the community? We already know that some airlines are charging over-weight passengers for two seats. Will the dairy industry see a decline in sales due to pressures to reduce obesity in America? This could be a worry to Tulare County, California and several communities in Wisconsin.

What will happen to the market for high-fat snack foods? Could this alter the mix of food-processing industries lured by areas for facility investments? What does the future hold for companies like Cadbury-Sweppes, Hershey Foods, Jelly Belly Candy, PEZ Candy, Nestle, Russell Stovers and a hoard of others?

If human nature prevails, people will continue to fight the battle of the bulge in the future. Should the Bush Administration launch a "War Against Fat?" Fat chance given the amount of beef produced in Texas.

There is a serious side to this story. The obesity problem in America is real and efforts to create a more healthy populace will continue to cause a major shift in demand away from fatty food and toward more healthy chow. This will impact the mix of businesses that economic developers lure to their areas. Maybe not tomorrow, but expect to see some changes over time.

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